Course Contents

Sampling and Sampling Distribution: Principle steps in sample survey, sampling design, uses and advantages of sampling, probability and non-probability sampling, Simple Random sampling, Stratified and Systematic random sampling. Census and sample survey, sample statistic and population parameter. Index Numbers: Index number (definition), simple and composite index numbers, main steps in the construction of index number of wholesale prices, uses of price index, Price Escalator, purchasing power of money, deflating dollar value, quantity index, value index, GNP, Consumer Price Index Number, index of industrial product, The implicit price deflator index, splicing, value added weighting, producer price index. Time Series Analysis: Components of time series, Secular Trend: Trend Analysis, Quadratic Trend Equation, Exponential Trend Equation. Smoothing Method: Moving Average, weighted moving average, exponential smoothing. Isolation of seasonal components, cyclical variations, irregular variation. Simple Forecast Methods: Naïve Forecast, simple moving average forecast, Trend forecast, conversion of quarterly and monthly data to annual rates. Vital Statistics: Meaning of vital statistics, registration of birth and death in Pakistan. Uses of vital statistics, rates and ratios(sex ratio, child women ratio, birth and death ratio, population growth rate, classification of natal rates, death rates or mortality rates, crude death rate, specific death rate, infant mortality rate, case fatality rate, fertility rates, crude birth rate, specific birth rate, net reproduction rate, mobility or sickness rate, marriage rate, divorce rate etc. general: fertility rate ,total fertility rate.

Course Synopsis

To familiarize students with quantitative research methods in social sciences and to learn practical application in designing a sample, constructing a questionnaire and conducting an interview. To enable students to analyze and interpret the time series data.

Course Learning Outcomes

• Students will be able to apply statistics in other fields at an appropriate level and demonstrate their ability to apply knowledge acquired from their major to real world models. • Students will demonstrate mastery of data analysis and statistical concepts by communicating critically reasoned analysis through written and oral presentations.